Hurricane Irma - Keep an Eye on it's path.

[Mividamialma]

CNN was showing a track of Irma in that picture. If you watch that clip was linked it shows that the European model has it heading out to sea after Puerto Rico and the American model shows it hitting the Carolinas.  None of the models have it affecting Cuba.


There is no watch for Cuba.  As of now no part of Cuba is even inside the cone although it could change I suppose.  Usually they are good at predicting a cone although not to good at the exact location.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/182048.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents

Up until Puerto Rico the path is the same, hence my comment about being on the same path...as of right now, it is. It veers after it goes over Puerto Rico. The hurricane warning is information we got from my FIL so either he's senile or the watch is strictly a watch put out by the Cuban government to its people and not an official watch put out by the NOAA.

[wolfcub]

Up until Puerto Rico the path is the same, hence my comment about being on the same path...as of right now, it is. It veers after it goes over Puerto Rico. The hurricane warning is information we got from my FIL so either he's senile or the watch is strictly a watch put out by the Cuban government to its people and not an official watch put out by the NOAA.

I have no idea if he's senile or not but there is nothing is in effect for Cuba according to my MIL.  In fact she told my wife they also expect it to miss Cuba.  Hopefully they are right.  Also the course of Maria is thankfully further south right now than Irma meaning it's going to miss Barbuda and Antigua but unfortunately do damage to other Islands.  This one looks like a direct hit on Dominica and then Puerto Rico before heading more north. 

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I don't want people here to worry about Cuba more than they need to.  Irma gave everyone enough to worry about.

[greslogo]

The projected path is it will head north and miss Cuba entirely.

It's at least a week away from reaching Cuba, if it ever does.

[gallofino]

I have no idea if he's senile or not but there is nothing is in effect for Cuba according to my MIL.  In fact she told my wife they also expect it to miss Cuba.  Hopefully they are right.  Also the course of Maria is thankfully further south right now than Irma meaning it's going to miss Barbuda and Antigua but unfortunately do damage to other Islands.  This one looks like a direct hit on Dominica and then Puerto Rico before heading more north. 

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I don't want people here to worry about Cuba more than they need to.  Irma gave everyone enough to worry about.

Dominica is "Nature Island" and very mountainous.  Its in the direct path of Maria and judging by the damage it took with Tropical Storm Erika in 2016, this Cat 5 will devastate the island.  Wind damage, mud and rock slides, flooding.  Add various hot springs including the boiling lake, things could be unimaginably bad for them.  This is not a rich island-country and I wish them the best.

Here is a clip about TS Erika so you fully understand what this place looks like and is in the eye of tonight.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/tropical-storm-erika-slams-the-caribbean--12-dead--dozens-missing-515362883605

[Mividamialma]

I have no idea if he's senile or not but there is nothing is in effect for Cuba according to my MIL.  In fact she told my wife they also expect it to miss Cuba.  Hopefully they are right.  Also the course of Maria is thankfully further south right now than Irma meaning it's going to miss Barbuda and Antigua but unfortunately do damage to other Islands.  This one looks like a direct hit on Dominica and then Puerto Rico before heading more north. 

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I don't want people here to worry about Cuba more than they need to.  Irma gave everyone enough to worry about.

I think you're making more of my post than it was. At the time I posted it, it had not reached the DR and it's path up to that point was on the same path as Irma. As the hours pass and it moves, it's path becomes more clear. As of right now it will head the same direction as José, based on projections and miss Cuba completely. At the time I posted, H had spoken to his dad the night before and was told there was a hurricane watch put out by the government. A watch is not the same as a warning, it's simply a watch. As for not worrying about Cuba more than people already have, Irma did a number on the keys, speak to anyone who lived around the keys who have no home left. Anyways, I'm not here to waste time arguing, I simply posted a link to show its path at the time I posted, as it has moved its path has become more clear in regards to its direction.

[wolfcub]

I think you're making more of my post than it was. At the time I posted it, it had not reached the DR and it's path up to that point was on the same path as Irma. As the hours pass and it moves, it's path becomes more clear. As of right now it will head the same direction as José, based on projections and miss Cuba completely. At the time I posted, H had spoken to his dad the night before and was told there was a hurricane watch put out by the government. A watch is not the same as a warning, it's simply a watch. As for not worrying about Cuba more than people already have, Irma did a number on the keys, speak to anyone who lived around the keys who have no home left. Anyways, I'm not here to waste time arguing, I simply posted a link to show its path at the time I posted, as it has moved its path has become more clear in regards to its direction.

Maybe it's me and I just don't follow what you say because it sounded clear at the time that you were saying one thing and are now saying something else.  We obviously get our info from different sources.  I try to rely on official sources for these sorts of things as it's normally more accurate.

By the way, it still hasn't passed the DR and isn't forecast to get into the areas until the early hours of Thursday.  It passed over Dominica last night but that is an entirely different island and has nothing to do with the Dominican Republic.

[Mividamialma]

Ok WC, you win...lol 
No, all I did was explain myself more in the second post....didn't realize anyone would take it as you did and turn it into a debate.

Anyways, I'll just say hasta luego, I'm outta here.

[wolfcub]

I wasn't trying to turn it into a debate or win anything but I've been noticing for a while that when you post something, even in error or that isn't accurate even if by mistake you won't correct yourself and just admit you made a mistake.  I'm not sure why that is.  My whole team at work has been told lately that they want more detail and fact checking before we submit our reports and then I read this stuff and it jumped right out at me.

[Mividamialma]

I didn't post anything incorrectly, I posted a link showing where hurricane Maria was at that time and said it was on the same path as Irma and based on where it was at the time I posted the link, it WAS on the same path as Irma....its only as the models predict its more future path, does it turn right and follow José's path.

As for the hurricane watch, I never said the watch was put out by any mainstream hurricane centre, I simply said my FIL said that they were under a hurricane watch. You're the one that came out and assumed that there must be something from the hurricane centre and when there wasn't, piped up and said NOAA had no such warning out. I therefore had no choice but to explain in more detail my original post.

At the time that hurricane Maria was still on the same path as Irma, my FIL said the government put out a watch.

You had the same "meh" attitude when I originally posted about Irma...saying it was too early to tell, it could switch directions, etc. As long as Maria was on the same path as Irma, nobody knew whether it would stay on that same path or veer off as it appears to be doing ad the days pass.

I'm not your team at work and don't post the detailed posts you expect of them, that doesn't make me wrong or mean I posted something in error. Lack of detail does not equate to error, it simply means lack of detail so ask.

[Mividamialma]

Anyways, I'm done explaining myself, not worth the time and effort.

[wolfcub]

I didn't post anything incorrectly, I posted a link showing where hurricane Maria was at that time and said it was on the same path as Irma and based on where it was at the time I posted the link, it WAS on the same path as Irma....its only as the models predict its more future path, does it turn right and follow José's path.

As for the hurricane watch, I never said the watch was put out by any mainstream hurricane centre, I simply said my FIL said that they were under a hurricane watch. You're the one that came out and assumed that there must be something from the hurricane centre and when there wasn't, piped up and said NOAA had no such warning out. I therefore had no choice but to explain in more detail my original post.

At the time that hurricane Maria was still on the same path as Irma, my FIL said the government put out a watch.

You had the same "meh" attitude when I originally posted about Irma...saying it was too early to tell, it could switch directions, etc. As long as Maria was on the same path as Irma, nobody knew whether it would stay on that same path or veer off as it appears to be doing ad the days pass.

I'm not your team at work and don't post the detailed posts you expect of them, that doesn't make me wrong or mean I posted something in error. Lack of detail does not equate to error, it simply means lack of detail so ask.

Ok we can drop this, but it did come across as an error or incorrect info to me.  The National Hurricane Center doesn't put out watches or warnings for other countries.  When you read them on their site, it will say "the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the province of Holguin", as an example.  Also, you did seem to mistake Dominica for the DR and that's sort of what I was saying.  Maybe I'm just too focused on attention for detail but that stuff naturally jumps out at me.  Maybe it's a flaw that I have. lol

[greslogo]

At the end of the day... None of this interpretation is important.

Chill, everybody.

[mctonedef]

Time for a glass of wine.

[Mividamialma]

Time for a glass of wine.

.....or 5......

18 days to go for me! Whoohoo......LOL

[greslogo]

You should be glad to know I achieved that level of consumption, yesterday....jeje.